Monsoon on time, but may not be bountiful

Drought Ruled Out, 89 Cm Rain Forecast

 

New Delhi: Delivering his 2010-11 Budget speech, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee sought Lord Indra’s help in keeping the economic recovery on track. He may need the rain god’s benediction as even though there is no shadow of drought, rainfall may not be too bountiful this year.
    The Met is fairly confident that going by current weather conditions, a drought will seem like a bad dream. But while the southwest monsoon is sticking to its predicted date, even arriving a little early in Kerala by May 30, rains are expected to be around the long-term average of 89 cm. If it dips a bit, there is no cause for alarm even if it may not rain in abundance.
    Experts say that unlike last year, when El Nino conditions developed around June and were not factored into initial monsoon predictions, the weather phenomenon is weakening this year. But it has not ebbed completely with the US climate prediction centre pointing to neutral conditions only by June or July. Some feel it could take longer.
    Sources said that while chances of drought could be almost ruled out, there was a possibility that expected rainfall could be in the range of 90-98% of the annual average. The best that could be hoped for was a 100% match with the long-term average, which means a normal monsoon though regional variations need to be followed closely. Met: El Nino conditions on decline
New Delhi: The southwest monsoon is sticking to its predicted date this year and may arrive a little early in Kerala, by May 30. The Met department has said the rains are expected to be around the long-term average of 89 cm, and no drought is foreseen.
    The Indian Ocean dipole effect, a key monsoon determinant, is predicted to be neutral over the next few months. A positive IOD index is better news for precipitation in the western Indian Ocean and while there are indications of a warming, it is yet to happen.
    National Atmospheric Research Laboratory’s scientist Dr M Rajeevan told TOI that El Nino conditions, or the warming of the tropical eastern Pacific waters, had peaked in November and were now on the decline. “IMD’s monsoon prediction model could not factor this in since it is based on conditions from March to May. However, since last year’s El Nino conditions are already present and other models have shown it is declining, we can say with a much higher degree of confidence that chances of drought are very minimal,’’ he said.
    Officials also added that there did not seem to be much of an anomaly in the Indian Ocean temperatures either this year. “There doesn’t seem to be too much warming taking place in the area at present. This also has implication on the Indian Ocean dipole conditions. This works in similar fashion to the El Nino and La Nina affect with heating and corresponding cooling in the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean. Those conditions are also favourable at present for a reasonably average monsoon,’’ said an IMD official. At a function organised by the IMD, Prithviraj Chavan, earth sciences minister and MoS in PMO, said the department’s current model suggested thesouthwest monsoon was likely to make an appearance around May 30. The seasonal rains are expected to hit Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 20 and would take another week to hit the southwestern coast of India. TNN