CLIMATE CHANGE - Expect scorching days ahead

 AFTER THE bitter winter, northern plains of India should brace up for a harsh summer.

If the present unprecedented heat wave in the Himalayan region continues, then this summer would be one of worst experienced in the northern region. Water and power crises, which seem almost imminent, are likely to add to the miseries of people.

According to the weather department in Shimla, the average maximum temperature in the region during the last month has been the highest in the past two decades. And there has been no sign of an early respite.

Such extreme weather is not good for rabi crops and apples. It could also mean early summer in the northern belt. Situation is such that Uttaranchal hills--one of the most water-fed areas in the region--are already experiencing severe water crisis, says Dr R.K. Pachauri, director-general of The Energy and Research Institute (Teri).

"Good snowfall ensures a continuous water flow to tributaries of major rivers. But most of the tributaries have already dried up," Pachauri added.

Less water in rivers not only means less drinking water for people in plains, it can also cause major power cuts. Turbines of hydro power plants can't run if there isn't sufficient water in the reservoir. "It happened on few occasions during last summer in Himachal even though the winter was good," said a senior Delhi government official. He also admitted that more shut downs were apprehended this summer with the present weather condition.

Environmentalists blame the vagaries of nature for this. The climatic changes in the Himalayan region have also led to such extreme weather. "Global warming and climatic changes can't be blamed fully. The dramatic changes are more because of natural factors. Global warming has been causing faster pace of glacier melting which is a cause of concern for us," said Dr Pauchari, who also heads Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The Geological Survey of India has estimated that glaciers are receding at a rate of 10-15 metres every year with the Gangotri glacier receding at a rate of 23 metres.

Under the present circumstances, it is estimated that the glacier melting will increase by 30-50 per cent depending on where they are placed, an environmentalist said. Himalayan temperature is increasing at a rate of 0.06 degrees Celsius annually, which is much more than the global temperature change.

Alarm bells Entire Himalayan region is experiencing a warmer winter in 2006 Glaciers have been receding at the rate of 10.15 metres. The Gangotri glacier has been receding at the rate of 23 metres A warmer winter would mean higher receding rate. The Himalayas are expected to lose most of the glaciers by 2035 February has been warmest in some parts of Himachal and Uttranchal in the past 10-12 years Some areas especially in Uttranchal are facing water crisis Heat is on in northern hills Shimla's average maximum temperature for the last month has been the highest in past two decades. With the advent of summer, mercury is only going to rise.

*Source:www.hindustantimes.com,dated Friday,February 10,2006.*