Published in IIPS Mumbai, ENVIS center, Volume 2, No. 1-2, March 2005

The Dynamics of Complex Humanitarian

Emergencies: An Economic and Demographic Perspective

by Dr. Lysander Menezes

 Prologue:  

 

 This paper on Transnational Security Issues will focus on intergroup conflicts and the resultant refugee movements.  Main aim of this paper is to discuss the factors behind group insecurity as explanatory variables in complex emergencies such as refugee migration due to a modern version of phenemena that have existed since premodern times in pastoral societies.  This study is an attempt to analyze the dynamics behind complex emergencies which are a combination of primitive and forced migrations (Petersen 1957), Primitive migrations result from an “ecological push”.  In forced migrations the triggering event is social pressure by other groups.  In this research paper the complexity of emergencies would be elaborates and trying to understand theoritical concepts for the following general areas into which these factors may be categorized: 

 

1. Forced Migration 2. Explosive Market Structures  3. Kinship Capital 4. Focal Points.

 

Hence following questions arises in understanding the complexity of problems:

 

1) Why do complex emergencies arise?

 

2) Why does a natural disaster play a role in causing intergroup conflict in some societies and in others leads to Kinship capital being used to manage emergency situations?

 

3) What are the transnational networks that can be constructed to prevent intergroup conflict from developing in societies which do not have an adequate accumulation of kinship capital? Nature and Importance of the Problem

 

A complex humanitarian emergency occurs when a natural disaster plays a role in the outbreak of inter group coflict (Bok, 1994).  McNeill’s historical epidemiology theory of migration in premodern times (McNeill., 1987) can be extended to this analysis of complex emergencies, to understand the causes of forced migration that occurs.  The outbreak of intergroup conflict amidst a natural disaster can be analysed as the forced replacement of one population by  another.  The population being replaced suffers from high mortality caused by violences. These dynamics occur within an ecumene occupied by human populations whose social organization reflects the carrying capacity of their landscapes (McNeill, 1987).  The population patterns can be understood as the output of generative social structures existing.  These are the unintended consequences of attempts to cope with the environment risks determined by the ecology.  A triggering event such as a “drought” leads to activation of this unobservable structure (Menezes , 1996).  Tribal warfare serves as a highly rational mechanism for adapting to harsh ecologies (Bourdieu 1966, Abou-Zeid 1966), enhancing reproductive fitness (Chagnon 1988) and maintaining equilibrium between natural resources and the resident populations following a natural disaster.  These population dynamics have been in existence since historical times in the grasslands of the Eurasian Steppes, the savanna lands of Africa and in the Middle East according to McNeill (1987).  Countries in which emergencies arise today such as Somalia, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi, Mauritania among others in Africa; Bosnia, the Nagorno Karabakh region in 

Eastern Europe, East and West Pakistan, Bangladesh , Iraq , Tajikistan in Central Asia and Afganistan in the Near East creating complex human emergence due to environmental disturbances.  But the recent “Tsunami” can not be classified as complex human emergences because the nature has not displaced but created disaster.  Hence complex human emergences should be looked in to the emergences where in human beings are displaced and creating inter group conflects in the displaced land and brings a change in the economic, social and environmental settings.

 

Lysander M. Menezes, WHO National Consultant, National Health Accounts Cell, Bureau of Planning Ministry of Health &Family Welfare, 100 D Wing, Nirman Bhawan, New Delhi-110 011

 

 

 

 

 

 

According to Alex de Waal despite the existence of such conflict some form of economic activity in the form of trading between hostile groups does take place (Alex de Waal, 1990). According to Benet, market structures do exist in noncentralized segmentary societies where blood feud and   intergroup conflict are prevalent. These markets maintained by intergroup truces are referred to as explosive markets (Benet 1957).  Thus a paradoxical situation arises of the neutral jurisdiction of the market existing amidst the complexity of intergroup conflict. An analysis of these population processes and social structures should help in explaining the paradoxical events that occur during emergencies when food is used a weapon of war, markets become targets of intergroup conflict, and the acquisition of territory belonging to others occurs. 

 

 It is assumed the migrant will have more will power to survive than native, because of the environmental distribencies at the origin.

 

Background:

Oded Stark and David Bloom(1985) have shown how  forced migration due to environmental distribunces can be analyzed as a supergame where migrants act cooperatively in replicating each other actions.  This enables them to become more successful economically in their place of destination than the natives who behave non-cooperatively.  

According to them this process of coordination of actions in an economy, undertaken by migrant networks, is the accumulation of kinship capital.  Kinship in this framework is not based on blood ties but, on a shared perception of efficient ways of cooperation among agents in an economay in resources allocation, in giving credit and so on.  

 According to Robert Bates, Kinship is a social construct that is used to organise capital accumulation in high risk environments (Bates 1989).  His central thesis is that development patterns, including state building, should be understood in terms of the structure of kinship prevelent in a tribal society where kinship is a reflection of attempts to form capital and cope with the risk environment determined by the ecology in which a society is situated.

 This line of  inquiry regarding kinship capital initiated by Oded Stark, David Bloom and Robert Bates will be extended to the analysis of forced migration and the existence of explosive markets.

 

Arguments:

 The theory of focal points proposed by Schelling and developed by Bacharach and Sugden can be used to analyse the epistemic rationality (Bichhieri, 1993). That is an intrinsic part of group identity in these societies.  The concept of focal points has been proposed by Thomas Schelling as a solution to the problem of coordination in bargaining and has been further developed bt Bacharach and Sugden (Schelling, 1963, Bacharach 1987, Sugden 1995).  A focal point is defined as the point of coordination of behaviour between individuals who have a shared perception of prominent ways of coordinating their actions.  This will explain why these conflicts are not amenable to arbitration.

 

 Intergroup conflict in high risk environments in the aftermath of a natural disaster (wars, famine, floods,drought, political instability, economic dipression etc.) can be regarded as an attempt to secure capital in order to enhance population fitness.  Capital can be defined as the entitlement relations that exist in a society.  Entitlement relations refers to the capacity to command resources in an economy with a certain choice environment (Sen, 1981).  In an “uncertain choice environment” capital accumulation takes the form of force exerted to gain entitlements.

The literature in bargaining theory assumes that agents in an economy can easily determine each other’s reasoning which enables them to coordinate their actions in determining an equilibrium solution to a resource allocation problem.  According to Bacharach this transparency in reasoning implicitly assumes a common cultural identity among agents. Resource allocation problems when the information available is incomplete or imperfect can be solved easily as each agent has the ability to infer how other agents view their options.  This is because there are some prominent ways of coordination called focal points which are known to everyone. In societies where complex emergencies occur, there are no prominent ways of coordination of behaviour that agents can use to allocate resources. This is due to the differences in cultural identities among agents.  Agents know the focal points for coordination accepted within their group but do not have any knowledge about the focal points for coordination outside their group.  During a natural disaster in a society with limited natural resources, this difference in the focal points and the instantaneous need to ensure group survival leads to a solution to the resource allocation problem taking the form of a Darwinian survival of the fittest dynamic.  This dynamic is inherent in the sequence of events that take place in complex emergencies.

 

 

 

 

 
 

 

A Darwinian solution is most likely to occur in pastoral economies where there is a fixed capital reserve of lilvestock and fodder and the grazing grounds used by the different groups overlap.  In societies where the capital reserves are not fixed, the density of population use plays a role in the development of new forms of capital (Boserup, 1981).  The solution to a resource allocation problem is most likely to be the use of networks to accumulate, manage and redistribute kinship capital.

 

In the international context of humanitarian aid, the issues before the global community are:

 

1) What should an external agent do when intergroup conflict arises amidst a natural disaster?

 

2) What form should the transnational networks take steps to help the society move from using intergroup conflict to kinship capital as a solution to the allocation of scarce resources during an emergency? Arguments like above will continue, but it is propose to stop here.

 

Author wishes to acknowledge with thanks all refrees and scholars who have given  this thought process [Note: Interested readers can answer these questions with elaborate descriptions.  Suitable discussions will have place in the coming issues- Editor.]

 

References

 

Abou-Zeid Ahmed “Honour and Sshame among the Bedouins of Egypt” in J.G.Peristiany (ed), ‘Honour and Shame’, University of Chicago Press 1966

 

Alex de Waal A., “A Re-assessment of Entitlement Theory in the Light of the Recent Famines in Africa”, Development and Change, Vol.21., 1990, 469-490

 

Bacharach M., “A Theory of Rational Decisions in Games” Erkenntnis 27,1987, 17-55

 

Bates R.H., “Capital,  Kinship and Conflict: The structuring Influence of Capital in Kinship Societies”, paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the African Studies Association, Atlanta 3-5, November, 1989

 

Benet F., “Explosive Markets: the Berber Highlands”, in Polanyi K. Arensberg C.M., and Pearson H.W. ed, ‘Trade and Market in the Early Empires’ Free Press, New York 1957

 

Bichhieri C., ‘Rationality and Coordination,’ Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 1993

 

Bok S.,“Complex Humanitarian Emergencied,” Harvard Centre for Population and Development Studies Working Paper No.94.10, October1994

 

Boserup E. ‘Population and Technological Change’, University of Chicago Press, Chicago 1981

 

Bourdieu P. ‘The Sentiment of Honour in Kabyle Society’ in J.G.Peristiany (ed)., ‘Honour and Shame’. University of Chicago Press 1966

 

Chagnon N., ‘Life Histories, Blood Revenge and Warfare in a Tribal Population’ Science 239(1988), 985-992

 

McNeill W.H., “Migration in Premodern TImes”, in W. Alonso ed, ‘Population in an Interacting World, Harvard University Press, Cambridge 1987

 

Menezes L.M., Dynamics of Complex Humanitarian Emergencies’, unpublished manuscript. 1996

 

Peterson W., “A General Typology of Migration” paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Society, Washington D.C., August 1957

 

Schelling T., ‘The Strategy of Conflict,’ Oxford University Press, New York 1963

 

Sen A., ‘Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation’, Clarendon Press, Oxford 1981

 

Stark O. and Bloom D.E., ‘The New Economics of Labour Migration’ AER 75(2), May 1985, 173-78

 

SugdenR2. ‘A Theory of Focal Points’ Economic Journal, May 1995, Vol.105, no.430.

 

Lysander M. Menezes, WHO National Consultant, National Health Accounts Cell, Bureau of Planning, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare 100 D Wing, Nirman Bhawan New Delhi-110 011